Research
Publications (Peer-Reviewed Journals)
An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Committees Composition and Its Relationship with Monetary Policy (2024)
with Guilherme Spilimbergo Costa
Latin American Journal of Central Banking
Article · DOI
Abstract
This paper studies how the composition of monetary policy committees affects monetary policy decisions. Using institutional variation across committees, we document systematic relationships between member characteristics and policy outcomes, highlighting the role of committee design for decision-making and credibility.International Macroeconomic Vulnerability (2024)
with Márcio Garcia, Bernardo Ribeiro, and João Velloso
Journal of International Money and Finance
Article · DOI
Abstract
We study cross-country sources of macroeconomic vulnerability, emphasizing the interaction between external exposure, domestic policy frameworks, and financial conditions. The analysis shows how structural features shape the transmission of global shocks and the resilience of emerging economies.Deep Learning Models for Inflation Forecasting (2023)
with Alexandre Fernandes Theoharidis and Hedibert Lopes
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Article · DOI · PDF
Abstract
This paper evaluates the performance of deep learning models for inflation forecasting. We compare machine learning approaches to standard econometric benchmarks and show that nonlinear methods can deliver gains in predictive accuracy, particularly during periods of structural change.Working under Pressure: Evidence from the Impacts of Soccer Fans on Players’ Performance (2012)
with Breno Braga
Economics Letters
Article · DOI
Abstract
Using match-level data, this paper studies how social pressure affects individual performance. We show that higher crowd intensity has a statistically significant impact on players’ outcomes, providing evidence on behavioral responses under pressure.Working Papers
The Not So Quiet Revolution: Signal and Noise in Central Bank Communication (2025)
with Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, Caio Garzeri, Antônio Lima, and Victor Monteiro
Central Bank of Brazil — Working Paper Series No. 635
PDF
Abstract
This paper studies central bank communication. The analysis focuses on how different components of communication relate to expectation formation and the informational role of policy statements showing that central bank communication sometimes adds more noise than signal.An Organizational Structure Approach to Price Setting and Monetary Policy (2025)
with Victor Monteiro
Central Bank of Brazil — Working Paper Series No. 638
PDF
Abstract
We develop a New Keynesian framework in which price rigidity emerges endogenously from organizational structure and incentive misalignment within firms. The model generates novel implications for inflation dynamics and the transmission of monetary policy.Following the Informational Footsteps of the Supply Chain Tracks (2025)
with Victor Monteiro and Thiago Christiano Silva
Central Bank of Brazil — Working Paper Series No. 640
PDF
Abstract
This paper studies information propagation in production networks using a model with incomplete information at the firm level. We link information frictions, network structure, and aggregate shock transmission, and provide supporting evidence using Brazilian firm-to-firm transaction data.Local Government Spending and Employment: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Brazil (2017)
with Breno Braga and Benjamin Thompson
Working Paper
SSRN
Abstract
Using regression discontinuity designs, we estimate the causal effects of local government spending on employment outcomes in Brazil, providing evidence on the labor-market impact of fiscal policy at the local level.Book Chapters (English)
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil: 1960–2016
with João Ayres, Márcio Garcia, and Patrick Kehoe
Book Chapter, in Juan Pablo Nicolini and Timothy J. Kehoe (eds.),
A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017
Book · NBER WP version
Abstract
This chapter provides a comprehensive account of Brazil’s monetary and fiscal history from 1960 to 2016. We emphasize regime changes, institutional developments, and the interaction between fiscal dominance and monetary policy.Monetary Policy Decision Making and Communication under Heightened Uncertainty in Brazil (2025)
with Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira
Book Chapter, BIS Papers No. 163
Chapter PDF · Volume
Abstract
This chapter analyzes how heightened uncertainty affects monetary policy decisions and communication strategies in Brazil. We discuss implications for expectation management, credibility, and policy effectiveness.Inflation and Labour Markets in the Wake of the Pandemic: The Case of Brazil (2023)
with Sergio Leão
Book Chapter, BIS Papers No. 142
Chapter PDF · Volume
Abstract
This chapter studies inflation dynamics and labor market adjustments in Brazil following the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing sectoral heterogeneity and distributional effects.Publications in Portuguese
Expectativas Desagregadas, Credibilidade do Banco Central e Cadeias de Markov (2014)
with Márcio Garcia
Revista Brasileira de Economia
PDF
Abstract
This paper analyzes disaggregated inflation expectations in Brazil using Markov chain techniques, highlighting the role of central bank credibility in shaping expectation dynamics.Dispersão na Fixação de Preços no Brasil (2011)
with Márcio Garcia
Revista Brasileira de Economia
PDF
Abstract
We document patterns of price dispersion in Brazil and discuss their implications for inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission.Futuro da Política Monetária no Brasil (2020)
Book Chapter, in Fábio Giambiagi (ed.),
O Futuro do Brasil
Institutional record